The New England Patriots (7-8) play the Miami Dolphins (8-7) on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. Going into this AFC East matchup, the Miami Dolphins sit second in the division with eight wins from 15 matches, one game clear of the third-placed New England Patriots. Before getting stuck in a rut, the New England Patriots should be highly motivated to claim a win before their defeats turn into a streak. Having lost two on the bounce, they’ll be looking turn things around against the Miami Dolphins.
New England Patriots VS Miami Dolphins Betting lines
New England Patriots VS Miami Dolphins Betting expert picks
New England Patriots VS Miami Dolphins Moneyline
The New England Patriots are the favorites for this Week 17 matchup, but we’re not too keen on their recent patchy form. The hosts have lost four of their last five contests and look like a red flag at the Gillette Stadium to us. Instead, we like the look of the Miami Dolphins continuing their dominance in this series, having won four of their last five matchups against the New England Patriots.
New England Patriots VS Miami Dolphins Spread
The oddsmakers are siding with the New England Patriots on the spread, but not by much. The hosts open up as the 2.5-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins for Sunday’s showdown. With the average margin of victory in the last five matchups of this series being 8.6 points, it seems as though the smart money lies in a one-score game on Sunday.
The New England Patriots have beaten the spread in just four of their last five games. The hosts are also 4-5 ATS in the past nine games at home and 5-5 ATS overall from their previous ten games.
The past 11 games against AFC East opposition saw the Miami Dolphins end up 6-3-2 ATS. During that span, the offense produced 20.3 points per game and the defense allowed an average of 24.0 points. In their past 10 matches, the Miami Dolphins went 4-6 ATS and also ended up 4-5 ATS from their nine most recent road trips.
New England Patriots VS Miami Dolphins Total
Judging by a points average of 43.6 points from the last ten matchups of this series, the total should land somewhere between 40 and 45 points for the latest encounter between the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins.
The oddsmakers have set the current total at 42.5 points, 5.9 points higher than the 36.6-point average these two squads saw from their past five contests.
Betting on the under would’ve been the right pick in each of the last four New England Patriots games at the Gillette Stadium. Meanwhile, the last five New England Patriots home games went over once, leaving the home side with an overall 4-6 record from their last ten contests in the over/under market.
The Miami Dolphins, on the other hand, have cashed in on the over in five of their last six games played on the road. Interestedly, the total has gone under in six of the Miami Dolphins’ past ten matchups against teams from the AFC East.
New England Patriots VS Miami Dolphins Betting trends
- New England Patriots have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games.
- The total went under in all of the New England Patriots’ last four games at the Gillette Stadium
NFL Power Rankings Week 17 2022, New England Patriots VS Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots Form
The New England Patriots fell to back-to-back defeats last week when the Cincinnati Bengals beat them 18-22. The hosts are now 5-5 in their past 10 games overall and 2-3 in the last five at home.
The New England Patriots’ offense is pretty average compared to the other NFL offenses, having put up 21.2 points per game this season. That said, visiting offenses normally struggle to break down the hosts’ defense, which has the fifth-best defensive record at home, having only allowed 17.4 points on their own turf and 19.4 points in all outings.
Having reached the wild card round of the playoffs last January, the New England Patriots were tipped for a repeat this year. However, unless the home side can overturn a 7-8 record before 2022 wraps up, a spot in the NFL postseason seems unlikely at this stage.
Miami Dolphins Form
A 20-26 defeat to the Green Bay Packers last week extended the losing streak of the Miami Dolphins to four matches. Their record for the last 10 games now stands at 5-5.
The Miami Dolphins’ offensive line has improved leaps and bounds since posting a mere 20.1 points per game last season, ranking ninth in the NFL with 24.3 points this year. A below-average defense isn’t what any traveling team wants to hear, but that’s how it is for the Miami Dolphins. The visitors have allowed 24.7 points per game this year.
The Miami Dolphins began the regular season backed to go far in the playoff, and having gone 8-7 from 15 games so far, they’re on course to reach this target. The aim now for the away side is to at least maintain or improve on their seventh seed in the AFC Conference.
New England Patriots VS Miami Dolphins H2H history
The Miami Dolphins bagged a 20-7 win over the New England Patriots in the previous matchup between these two franchises. The encounter took place at the Hard Rock Stadium in September 2022. The Miami Dolphins are riding a three-game winning streak against the New England Patriots and are 7-3 in the last ten contests between their two teams.
In their past ten head-to-head games, the New England Patriots pulled off 23.8 points on average per game, whereas Miami Dolphins managed 19.8 points per match.